Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3843
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 3843 · DFW → XNA
departs 6:30 PM CT · arrives 7:51 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 41%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
78%
chance · ±0 pts
+18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
78%
Leave 15+ late
64%
Arrive 1h+ late
35%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
78%
Yes 78%
No 22%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
20%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
6pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
XNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.19 in
XNA (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.41 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.