Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3954
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
MQ 3954 · STL → MIA
departs 11:00 AM CT · arrives 2:46 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 26%
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
−11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 26 kt, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,420 ft Visibility 4.4 mi Precip 0.12 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 1.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.