Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3975
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
MQ 3975 · DCA → SYR
departs 10:59 PM ET · arrives 12:20 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 44%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SYR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SYR?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
10pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
SYR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SYR (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.