MQ 4010 · DFW → MHK

departs 9:46 AM CT · arrives 11:20 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at MHK more than 15 minutes late?

78% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MHK?

On time or early
15%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
33%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at MHK that day

↑ 9am departures from DFW are often late

↓ MHK usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into MHK at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

MHK (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip2.94 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4010 · DFW → MHK

Odds over time

How late will it get to MHK?