Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4128
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
MQ 4128 · SHV → DFW
departs 8:16 PM CT · arrives 9:39 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 54%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±0 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
56%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
16%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave SHV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
16%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SHV
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SHV (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.