Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4131
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 4131 · DCA → BUF
departs 10:40 PM ET · arrives 11:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 44%
Mon 10/5 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±6 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BUF that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.28 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.