Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4149
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
MQ 4149 · ORD → MHT
departs 7:59 PM CT · arrives 11:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 27%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MHT more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at MHT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 53% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at MHT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MHT?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
7pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MHT
↓
MHT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
MHT (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.