MQ 4176 · ORD → SAT

departs 2:59 PM CT · arrives 5:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.74 in

SAT (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,233 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip4.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4176 · ORD → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?