Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4176
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 4176 · ORD → SAT
departs 3:02 PM CT · arrives 6:02 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 69%
Fri 10/2 34%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
3pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
SAT is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.52 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.