Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4176 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

MQ 4176 · ORD → SAT

departs 2:59 PM CT · arrives 5:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±7 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are often late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,733 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

SAT (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.65 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4176 · ORD → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?