Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4178
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 4178 · CLT → SAV
departs 11:00 AM ET · arrives 12:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAV more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −22 pts in 24h
−22 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at SAV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAV?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from CLT are often late
↑
CLT is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAV
Weather at each end
CLT (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SAV (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 0.13 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.