Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4260
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 4260 · DFW → AVL
departs 7:30 PM CT · arrives 10:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 35%
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
−17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at AVL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to AVL?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
7pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at AVL that day
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.07 in
AVL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.