OH 5027 · DCA → ROC

departs 9:47 AM ET · arrives 11:09 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts −22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ROC?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ 9am departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ ROC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

ROC (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precip2.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5027 · DCA → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?