OH 5133 · DCA → ILM

departs 5:53 PM ET · arrives 7:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ ILM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

ILM (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5133 · DCA → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?