Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5286 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

OH 5286 · DCA → MKE

departs 11:23 AM ET · arrives 12:34 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts −19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MKE?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at MKE that day

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ MKE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

MKE (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip1.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5286 · DCA → MKE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MKE?