Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
PSA · FLIGHT OH 5415SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
OH 5415 · PHL → MEM
departs 7:05 PM ET · arrives 9:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
21%chance · ±1 pts– · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.