Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4040
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
OO 4040 · PVD → DTW
departs 5:00 PM ET · arrives 7:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 9/30 25%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 17%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±5 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PVD
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PVD (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.