Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6012
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
OO 6012 · JAX → ORD
departs 6:35 PM ET · arrives 8:34 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 44%
Sat 10/3 35%
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 32%
Wed 10/7 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
14%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 68% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
27%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
34%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
15%
Cancelled
14%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Other factors
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.