Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1458
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 1458 · MCI → DCA
departs 12:30 PM CT · arrives 3:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 42%
Mon 10/5 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 2.6 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
Other factors
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.60 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.