Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 161
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 161 · BWI → RDU
departs 10:40 PM ET · arrives 11:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 37%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
10pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.