Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1624
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 1624 · MIA → BWI
departs 6:50 PM ET · arrives 9:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 38%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 25%
Wed 10/7 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
56%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 56% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from MIA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 1.25 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.