Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2690
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 2690 · MCO → RDU
departs 10:05 PM ET · arrives 11:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3 47%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −24 pts in 24h
−24 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
10pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 42% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.