Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3014
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 3014 · DAL → DCA
departs 5:00 PM CT · arrives 8:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 44%
Mon 10/5 28%
Fri 10/9 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
62%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 65% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 61% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
62%
Yes 62%
No 38%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,367 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 5.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DAL that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↑
5pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 3.06 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.