Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 3515 · PVD → DCA
departs 4:50 PM ET · arrives 6:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 30%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PVD (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.