Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
WN 3515 · PVD → DCA
departs 5:45 PM ET · arrives 7:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 25h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Wed 9/30
Thu 10/1 26%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from PVD are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
PVD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.