Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 3515 · PVD → DCA
departs 5:45 PM ET · arrives 7:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 25%
Thu 10/1 24%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from PVD are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
PVD (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.