Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3638
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 3638 · SFO → BUR
departs 3:00 PM PT · arrives 4:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 35%
Mon 10/5 26%
Fri 10/9 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↑
3pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SFO that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.