Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3709
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 3709 · HOU → TPA
departs 2:40 PM CT · arrives 5:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 54%
Sat 10/3 41%
Sun 10/4 51%
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
71%
chance · ±0 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
71%
Leave 15+ late
65%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 73% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
71%
Yes 71%
No 29%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 65% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
27%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
31%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
15%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at HOU that day
↑
2pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.73 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.57 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.