Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4035
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4035 · TPA → MDW
departs 10:30 PM ET · arrives 12:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 39%
Sat 10/3 33%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.57 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.