Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4323
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4323 · BWI → MSY
departs 4:20 PM ET · arrives 6:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 38%
Sun 10/4 46%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.