Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4354
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4354 · ROC → BWI
departs 5:50 PM ET · arrives 7:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 24%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from ROC are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
ROC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 2.09 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.