Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4470
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4470 · OMA → DCA
departs 12:20 PM CT · arrives 3:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 14%
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 2.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at OMA that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
OMA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
OMA (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 2.88 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.