Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4518
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4518 · BNA → CLT
departs 8:50 PM CT · arrives 11:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 9/30 19%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CLT (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.