Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4569
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4569 · BWI → RSW
departs 3:35 PM ET · arrives 6:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 46%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at RSW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to RSW?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 44 kt, cloud base down to 1,400 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 1.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
RSW (destination)
Gusts 44 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 0.79 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.