Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4618
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4618 · AUS → TPA
departs 4:25 PM CT · arrives 7:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 52%
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 33%
Fri 10/9 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
78%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
78%
Leave 15+ late
62%
Arrive 1h+ late
33%
Cancelled
17%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 78% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
78%
Yes 78%
No 22%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 62% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
62%
Yes 62%
No 38%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −20 pts in 24h
−20 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
18%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
32%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
17%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
4pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.69 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.57 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.