Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4799
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 4799 · MIA → BNA
departs 4:00 PM ET · arrives 5:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 46%
Sat 10/3 33%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 24%
Wed 10/7 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±0 pts
+19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
34%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +21 pts in 24h
+21 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
27%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 26 kt, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↑
4pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.67 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.