Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4799
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4799 · MIA → BNA
departs 7:25 PM ET · arrives 8:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Fri 10/2 46%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 24%
Wed 10/7 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.