Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4821
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4821 · BWI → PVD
departs 7:10 AM ET · arrives 8:30 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 6%
Sun 10/4 5%
Mon 10/5 4%
Fri 10/9 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
BWI is prone to delays
↑
BWI is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
PVD (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.