Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4860
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4860 · JAX → AUS
departs 1:15 PM ET · arrives 2:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 60%
Sun 10/4 58%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
78%
chance · ±0 pts
+28 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
78%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 78% · changed +28 pts in 24h
+28 pts
78%
Yes 78%
No 22%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
21%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
40%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 51% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.69 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.