Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4926
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4926 · MKE → MCO
departs 8:15 PM CT · arrives 12:10 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 34%
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
−11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at MKE that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MKE usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 1.09 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.