Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3439
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 3439 · EWR → ORF
departs 7:59 PM ET · arrives 9:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
29%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORF (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.