Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3474
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
YX 3474 · BGR → EWR
departs 7:00 AM ET · arrives 8:43 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 9%
Sat 10/3 6%
Sun 10/4 5%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave BGR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
BGR is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at BGR that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
BGR (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.