Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3603
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 3603 · EWR → ORF
departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 5:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 19%
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
3pm departures from EWR are often late
↑
EWR is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORF (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.