Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3618
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
YX 3618 · TVC → EWR
departs 1:46 PM ET · arrives 4:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 36%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave TVC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at TVC that day
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
TVC (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.28 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.