Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3647
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
YX 3647 · EWR → ROC
departs 10:17 AM ET · arrives 11:40 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 9%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 9%
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
10am departures from EWR are often late
↑
EWR is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
ROC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ROC (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 2.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.