Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4425
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 4425 · ORD → MSP
departs 3:43 PM CT · arrives 5:32 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±1 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
3pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at MSP that day
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.75 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.