Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4466
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 4466 · PHL → SDF
departs 8:38 PM ET · arrives 11:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
PHL is busy at that time
↓
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SDF (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.