Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4468
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 4468 · STL → DCA
departs 5:02 PM CT · arrives 8:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 22%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 367 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 467 ft Visibility 2.66667 mi Precip 0.60 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.