Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4468 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

YX 4468 · STL → DCA

departs 5:02 PM CT · arrives 8:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±5 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DCA that day

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.62 in

DCA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4468 · STL → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?