Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4491
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
YX 4491 · DCA → LGA
departs 9:59 AM ET · arrives 11:25 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 26%
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−26 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −26 pts in 24h
−26 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −34 pts in 24h
−34 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↑
9am departures from DCA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.